Hollinger’s Cap Geekery: Aldridge’s new guarantee date, Ayton impact, nerdy incentives, Hornets cleverness and more

Oct 16, 2019; Houston, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) handles the ball while Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) defends during the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
By John Hollinger
Oct 25, 2019

We’re months away from the heart of trade season, but potential targets are dropping like flies. Bradley Beal’s extension in Washington took one highly coveted piece out of play until June, a series of rookie-contract extensions effectively took several others out of play … and now, a low-key contract move this week may have quietly removed another trade candidate.

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For those monitoring the trading game, San Antonio is one of the most interesting teams to watch this season. On paper, it’s a fringe playoff contender with two juicy high-scoring veterans that could be in play later this year in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan … but the Spurs could also turn and go all-in with their multitude of promising young players and draft picks.

The way San Antonio played its cards in the offseason makes the former scenario seem unlikely, and this week we moved another step further away when the Spurs changed the guarantee date on Aldridge’s contract for 2020-21. Aldridge’s $24M contract for next season is only partially guaranteed for
$7M. That amount wasn’t due to become fully guaranteed until June 29, 2020.

However, the Spurs and Aldridge recently agreed to move that date all the way up to January 1 of next year. Such an early date makes it exceedingly unlikely that we could see Aldridge’s partial guarantee used as a trade chip, since the league’s trade deadline isn’t until Feb. 6. In truth, the odds of Aldridge being waived at any point were pretty slim – the provision mostly stood to protect against a serious injury, and Aldridge seems just fine, thanks. Instead, San Antonio elected to do him a solid by removing an option that was unlikely to be in play anyway.

And of course, Aldridge still could be traded at any time. But advancing the guarantee date by half a year is another of several recent data points suggesting the Spurs aren’t contemplating a rebuild any time soon.

  • Speaking of the Spurs, I’m proud to report that the nerds have won: Dejounte Murray has an incentive in his contract extension that potentially pays him a bonus based on his True Shooting Percentage. On top of his four-year $64M deal, he’ll get an added $500k in any year his TS% is 58 or higher. Not bloody likely, since his career TS% is 49.2, but certainly an incentive to shoot efficiently. He also can get $500k if he nets at least 125 3s in a season; he’s converted 19 for his career entering this season.

On the plus side, Murray stands to earn $500k for making first or second-team All-Defense, which he did in 2018 and probably will again if he stays healthy. Doing so all four years would take his extension value to $66M.

Another nerdy extension provision is this gem in Taurean Prince’s deal with Brooklyn: He will receive exactly $334,375 if the Nets post a Defensive Rating below 105 in his minutes. (Nobody tell him, but no team in the league had a Defensive Rating below 105 last season).

As our Sam Amick recently reported, the extension for Sacramento’s Buddy Hield also contains a Defensive Rating incentive, although his is for a more attainable 110.5 (Well, attainable if you don’t give up a buck-twenty to Phoenix).

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Finally, geeks will also enjoy another Prince provision, stating he must attempt at least 7.6 3-point attempts per 36 minutes and shoot better than 41.5 percent on 3s to cash in on another $334,375. The insistence on shot attempts is likely a reaction to the end of Moe Harkless’s 2016-17 season, when he stopped shooting 3s late in the season because he had locked up a $500k incentive-based solely on his percentage.

  • Deandre Ayton’s 25-game suspension is a tough break for a Phoenix team that played so well on opening night, but the offseason addition of Aron Baynes should help ease the sting. Look for Phoenix to also test out small, spacing lineups with Frank Kaminsky at 5, and for stealth signing Chieck Diallo to get into the mix off the bench.

Cap-wise, the Suns don’t get any credit or exception from the suspension, although it does affect their luxury tax calculation – Ayton’s suspension will remove $2,173,391 from Phoenix’s total. Functionally, this will not matter at all, as the Suns already are nearly $12M from the tax line.

However, a more relevant consideration is that Phoenix can sign a 16th player after Ayton has served the first five games of his suspension – which would be on Nov 3. The Suns can stay at 16 until the suspension ends on Dec. 17. Note that Phoenix has only its minimum exception remaining to sign a player.

  • One interesting wrinkle on 2-way contracts is that normally they come with invisible strings attached, in the form of a promise to the players’ agent that he will spend a certain number of days on the team’s main roster. (I, of course, would never do such a thing, but I’ve heard stories of other people doing it). It’s hugely important for 2-way players since their pay varies dramatically depending on whether their service days are G League or NBA.

Agents usually push for the maximum 45 days, with an added kicker – they want an added promise that the player will spend the first 17 days of the season and the final 18 days on the main roster, since those days are before and after the G League regular season and are considered “off the books” as far as the 45-day limit. In total then, these players can earn 80 days of NBA wampum – worth a total of $406,016, rather than the $79,568 they otherwise make.

Which takes us to Boston’s contract with Max Strus. The Celtics signed him to a 2-way in mid-July but last week, upon further reflection, they preferred to use his spot on 7-6 summer league sensation Tacko Fall.

Boston first converted his two-way to a minimum NBA contract with a $415,000 guarantee, and then waived him days later – assuring Strus would earn the same money as if he’d spent the maximum number of two-way days on the Celtics’ active roster.

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Strus may come out of this even better, actually, as he’ll have a chance for the rare two-way double-dip – he signed a two-way with the Bulls after the Celtics cut him. The gunslinging rookie wing from DePaul could earn almost the full rookie minimum this year if he gets his 45 days from the Bulls on top of what Boston paid him.

  • Kudos to Charlotte’s front office for a new twist on two-ways in the final days of preseason. Teams have become much sharper about using two-way contracts to manage their rosters in training camp, but the Hornets unveiled a previously unseen trick twice this week: Charlotte used a 2-way spot to deftly convert the one-year non-guaranteed deals of both Caleb Martin and Jalen McDaniels into multi-year minimum contracts without waiving them. How’d they do that? Well, a training camp deal with an Exhibit 10 can be converted into a 2-way contract at any time. Once it’s a two-way, the team can then sign the player to a new NBA contract at any time.

In this case, Charlotte wanted to retain rights to McDaniels and Martin beyond this season without cutting them. The Hornets effectively used the two-way as a means to “launder” their previous deals into new ones.

McDaniels, the 52nd pick in the draft, signed a 4-year minimum deal with a $400k guarantee this year; the undrafted Martin (whose twin brother Cody was the 32nd pick by Charlotte), signed a 3-year minimum with a $500k guarantee this year.

  • Finally, Cleveland’s Cedi Osman agreed to a 4-year, $30.8 million contract extension yesterday according to the New York Times’ Marc Stein. While details are still sketchy, if the Cavs paid him declining money they could start next season at $8.75M.

Cleveland still has plenty of money for next offseason – the Cavs are $47.25M under the cap with just seven committed salaries. Cap holds for empty roster spots will eat up nearly $4M of that, and a lottery pick figures to wipe out another $5-10, but Cleveland remains on track for max room if it can find somebody worth paying. Cleveland’s next decision will be whether to pick up the $3.87M option on Ante Zizic for next year. They have until Oct. 31 to decide.

(Photo: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)

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John Hollinger

John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger