Plenty of contending teams this season could use upgrades in their starting rotations. The Phillies, Mets, Braves, Brewers, Padres, Twins, Athletics and Astros are among the teams who will likely need pitching help — but despite significant demand, supply is limited outside of free agent southpaws Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez. However, several starting pitchers could be dealt between now and the July 31 deadline, and major league front offices are already targeting trade partners and examining the possibilities.
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General managers typically spend the first two months of a season evaluating their team, then spend June and July trying to make the necessary moves to give themselves the best chance to get to the playoffs — or to rebuild with prospects. There are always exceptions to that timeline, though, and with so many aggressive GMs in need, I won’t be surprised if we see more trades earlier this season than ever before.
Naturally, most of these pitchers are on teams that are not expected to contend, and every situation is different. Some are free agents at the end of the year; a few are controllable for another season, and several near the bottom of this list are not going to be shopped, nor do their teams want to trade them … but hey, if a team is overwhelmed by a trade proposal, anything can happen. I also included a pitcher whose contract makes him almost impossible to trade, but hey, you never know. With that out of the way, here’s a look at some of the top starting pitchers who contending GMs have told me they are already targeting:
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Age: 29 Height: 6-4 Weight: 245
Contract Status: 8 years/$58.06m Free Agent: 2020
2019 stats
ERA: 3.66 FIP: 3.93 K/9: 8.44 BB/9: 1.41 BABIP: .250 GB%: 37.6
Farhan Zaidi, the Giants’ president of baseball operations, has been very quiet since taking over the team last November, but that is expected to change between now and the trade deadline. Bumgarner — one of the most important faces of the franchise — is a free agent at season’s end, and the Giants will either need to sign him to a contract extension between now and July 31 or trade him. They just can’t risk him leaving as a free agent and getting only draft pick compensation in return. There are several teams where he would fit nicely, including the Braves, Phillies, Brewers and Astros. All of those organizations have strong minor league systems and would match up well in a trade with the Giants.
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2. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 27 Height: 5-7 Weight: 178
Contract Status: 1 year/$7.4m Arb Eligible: 2020 Free Agent: 2021
2019 stats
ERA: 1.76 FIP: 2.40 K/9: 8.51 BB/9: 3.52 BABIP: .302 GB%: 56
The Blue Jays are in rebuilding mode, and the trade value for Stroman will never be higher than it is now, thanks to a strong start to the season coupled with the fact he’ll be a free agent after next year. The Jays have not had extension talks with Stroman, and with their financial tendencies, it’s unlikely they will go that route. I expect him to be dealt by the deadline, with the Braves the most likely landing spot because of Stroman’s strong ties to former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who is now the GM in Atlanta. Stroman is an obsessed competitor and a great athlete; his passion and energy for the game are displayed in every start. He will continue to be an overachiever because of his spirit.
3. Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Free agent
Age: 31 Height: 6-3 Weight: 205
2018 stats
W/L: 12-11 ERA: 3.74 FIP: 3.69 K/9: 6.73 BB/9: 2.55 BABIP: .300 GB%: 53.7 WAR: 3.3
It’s hard to believe that Keuchel doesn’t have a job yet. He’s still a ground-ball machine who can own the bottom of the strike zone and the black on both sides of the plate. His late-breaking sinker/slider combination works as well as his finely trimmed beard. He also is a strong mentor for young starting pitchers (just ask his former teammate, Lance McCullers Jr.) I think the Padres and Braves are his best fits, because both have special defenders on the left side of their infield, and young starting pitchers who could use his leadership and mentorship. I also think a change in leagues would help him. Otherwise, a return to the Astros makes sense, since they don’t have to give up a draft pick if they re-sign him; or the Brewers, who desperately need another starting pitcher and have a couple of younger starters who are off to slow starts.
4. Robbie Ray, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 27 Height: 6-2 Weight: 195
Contract Status: 1 year/$6.05m Arb Eligible: 2020 Free Agent: 2021
2019 stats
ERA: 3.95 FIP: 3.74 K/9: 9.88 BB/9: 5.27 BABIP: .242 GB%: 34.9
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The Diamondbacks have not made Ray available, but teams will come calling if Arizona is not in contention come July. Ray continues to have dominating stuff, although his strikeout-per-9 ratio is down from 12 last season to 10 this year. His command and control continue to be his downfall; for the second straight year, he’s allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Still, several teams would like to get their pitching coaches and analytics department involved to see if they could help him improve in that area.
5. Mike Minor, LHP, Texas Rangers
Age: 31 Height: 6-4 Weight: 205
Contract Status: 3 years/$28m Free Agent: 2021
2019 stats:
ERA: 3.21 FIP: 4.19 K/9: 6.95 BB/9: 2.94 BABIP: .205 GB%: 41.3
The Rangers are off to a good start, and Minor has been the highlight of their rotation so far. Several teams have engaged the Rangers in trade talks for his services, both in the offseason and since the season began. The combination of his affordable contract and his early success has teams salivating. Texas is not in a rush to trade him, but will certainly continue to listen to proposals as they hope for a strong prospect package in return.
6. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 26 Height: 6-4 Weight: 212
Contract Status: 1 year/$3.9m Arb Eligible: 2020 Free Agent: 2021
2019 stats
ERA: 2.77 FIP: 4.54 K/9: 7.96 BB/9: 5.54 BABIP: .258 GB%: 50
In 2016, Sanchez finished the season with a record of 15-2, a league-leading 3.00 ERA, and a top-seven finish in the Cy Young Award voting. Injuries have derailed his career ever since, but he’s finally healthy again and has an impressive 2.77 ERA after his first five starts. Sanchez is in the same boat as his teammate Marcus Stroman: He’s a free agent after next year, and his trade value will never be higher. With his injury history, it’s unlikely the Jays will extend him, making him another strong candidate to be dealt this July. Also as with Stroman, the Braves could be an obvious fit — but most contending teams will pursue both of these two if they continue to have strong first halves.
7. Zack Greinke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 35 Height: 6-2 Weight: 208
Contract Status: 6 years/$206.5m Free Agent: 2022
2019 stats
ERA: 4.60 FIP: 5.09 K/9: 9.82 BB/9: 1.84 BABIP: .264 GB%: 36.4
Greinke is owed $34.5 million this year and $35 million each of the next two years — and it will be impossible to trade him at those salaries. He also has a partial no-trade clause, which complicates matters even more. However, we’ve all seen bigger contracts moved, and we’ve seen players with complete no-trade clauses moved as well. If the Diamondbacks agreed to absorb a significant amount of his salary, and their trade partner was a contending team that was geographically in a spot Greinke likes, it’s still possible he gets dealt. The D-Backs would love to get solid prospects back for him, and if they could reduce future financial exposure in the meantime, all the better. It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible.
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8. Matt Boyd, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Age: 28 Height: 6-3 Weight: 235
Contract Status: 1 year/$2.6m Arb Eligible: 2020 Free Agent: 2023
2019 stats
ERA: 3.16 FIP: 2.41 K/9: 11.20 BB/9: 2.59 BABIP: .280 GB%: 37
It looks like Boyd is finally having his breakout season. The Tigers would like to build around the lefty since they control him for four more years — but they would be foolish not to listen to the contending teams that are calling, to see if they can get a volume of quality prospects back. The Tigers probably won’t be ready to win for three or four more years; trading Boyd while his value is at its peak to build a loaded farm system of starting pitching prospects is at least worth exploring.
9. Carlos Rodón, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 26 Height: 6-3 Weight: 235
Contract Status: 1 year/$4.2m Arb Eligible: 2020 Free Agent: 2022
2019 stats
ERA: 2.89 FIP: 2.47 K/9: 11.25 BB/9: 3.86 BABIP: .257 GB%: 41.4
The White Sox are pleased that Rodón is finally healthy and living up to his strong potential to start the season, with a 2.47 FIP and 11.25 strikeouts per nine. And the team has no interest in trading him. They believe he’s an important part of their rotation during their rebuild. However, because Rodón’s prime years are still ahead and he’s controllable for three more years, there’s always a chance that a team will want to grossly overpay for him — which is what it would take for Chicago to trade him.
10. Caleb Smith, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 27 Height: 6-2 Weight: 204
Contract Status: 1 year/$557k Arb Eligible: 2021 Free Agent: 2024
2019 stats
ERA: 2.35 FIP: 2.51 K/9: 11.35 BB/9: 2.35 BABIP: .240 GB%: 36.7
Like the White Sox with Rodón, the Marlins have no plans to trade Smith. At the same time, Miami isn’t going to be contending for the next three to five years, which means they shouldn’t have any untouchables at this point. The organization is so thin when it comes to hitters that if they could turn Smith into a couple of good young bats, they probably should consider it. Smith is inexpensive and has three plus pitches (fastball, change-up and slider). Contending teams like the Phillies, Twins and Brewers should be all over him.
(Top photo of Bumgarner: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
